Risk Rewarded Blog

While specific areas of the market are rising with a certain lightness that reminds us that while the economy may be struggling in certain areas -- like shale-oil communities, for instance -- there are other areas that are prospering. Homebuilders are one such area.1. Homebuilders as a Group Are Moving Free of a Large Base PatternTrue, they have been...

I saw some fascinating economic research from Bespoke Investment Group on Monday afternoon that I wanted to share with you.The analysts observed that the Industrial Production report for the month of April, published on Friday, showed a decline of 0.3%, which was notable in that it represented the fifth straight monthly decline in this indicator. IP...

You may have heard that California is experiencing a historic drought -- the worst in at least 200 years by some measures. While this might seem like a problem isolated to California, the TIS Group observed that there are some implications that you may not have considered, and could have much broader impact.The state hydrological reserve is at only...

The big event this week has been the release of the April 29 Fed meeting minutes.  The April statement acknowledged the rollover in Q1 earnings data which has since only worsened, with Wall Street estimates for Q1 GDP falling below -1%. The minutes were  scoured for clues as to how confident the Fed is that the slowdown is merely temporary.Friday's...

The slowdown in retail sales growth has been a big surprise this spring, as lower gasoline pump prices were expected to boost spending. What's going on?Our new friends at TIS Group have a fascinating if scary answer: The credit cycle is breaking down as consumers sense that the economy is slipping a gear and don't want to over-leverage themselves.This...

The April Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey continue to add support to the idea the weak March payroll report was an anomaly and that the job market is rapidly moving towards full employment.The quit rate rose to 2%, suggesting the balance of power in the labor market is finally shifting from employers to employees. This also suggests wages, a powerful...

We've been writing about the advance of Chinese stocks of late, and wow -- look at them go. The chart above records their moonshot this month, up 18.7% with upside gaps many days that show a lack of sellers. For sure, I should have recommended that we enter these stocks via an instrument like iShares China (FXI) before now, having been a gawking bystander....

One of my key thoughts this year is that increasing economic competitiveness of solar panels relative to fossil fuels will result in a surge of new installations by private homeowners and utilities.A similar dynamic is underway in complementary battery technology. Not only are these lithium-ion cells used in electric cars, but they are necessary for...