Risk Rewarded Blog
The latest investment strategies and insights from Markman Capital Insight. Helping investors get the most reward from every ounce of risk.
Can Intel Bounce Back?
The chips are down. Or at least the ones in elder care are. The Philadepihia Semiconductor Index more than doubled from late 2012 to a high earlier this month. It's been a solid, nearly unblemished advance powered by excitement over the internet of things (everyday objects connected digitally) and excitement about a PC upgrade cycle after Microsoft...
Transports Slow Down
In the two years between late 2012 and late 2014, transportation stocks -- cargo and people movers like UPS (UPS), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and CSX (CSX) -- were the place the be. TheDow Jones Transportation Average gained nearly 90% in a rise that was as unstoppable as a freight train; more than double the...
The Drag of a Strong Dollar
The setbacks this week have pushed the S&P 500 under its 50-day moving average for the first time since January, and the benchmark index is now down 1% for the year.The damage is getting serious: The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-day moving average has declined to just 44%. And this is not a matter of a bunch of nobodies getting hit....
Gemini TY nails 9.7% gain shorting Treasurys
Our bond futures programs Gemini TY completed its first sequence of the year Friday for a big $1,953.08 gross profit.The system started shorting the 10 Year Note (TY) futures on Jan. 15, and ultimately over the course of the next 50 days traded seven contracts, as you can see in the table below.Bonds are traded in 32nds rather than decimals....
Dawn of the iDow
Apple (AAPL) is completing its journey from renegade to matron with the announcement that it would be joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average, effective March 19 taking the place of old Ma Bell, AT&T (T). The move was prompted by a 4:1 stock split by Visa (V) which would have reduced the weighting of information technology...
Smart Money Grows Anxious
I checked in with Jason Goepfert to see what the sentiment data is showing about the recent stall in the market, and as usual he had some interesting data to share. Goepfert, who runs Sundial Capital, reports that for the first time since last June, an extreme in the outlook between Smart Money and Dumb Money traders has emerged. Both terms...
Gemini VF1 posts 8.2% gain
Gemini VF1, which trades S&P 500 Volatility Index (VX) futures, recorded a $2,050 gross profit, or +8.2%, for its $25k model portfolio on Tuesday. That was awesome. The sequence involved just one contract, and took only five days. The system is now up $4,000 gross for the year, or +16%, more than covering its annual cost with 10 more months...
Gemini VF1: +2.8% Overnight Gain
Gemini VF1, which trades S&P 500 Volatility Index (VX) futures, recorded a $700 gross profit, or +2.8%, for its $25k model portfolio on Friday morning, Feb. 27. That was a fantastic win because it came on an overnight hold. The VX was shorted at 4:45 pm ET on Thursday and the system took profits on Friday morning. The system...